INTERNATIONAL POLITICS
WAR

Kegley and Wittkopf, World Politics, 9th ed. (2004)
Chapter 11 

Conflict is "discord, often arising in international relations, over perceived incompatibilities of interest"

Armed Conflict is "combat between the military forces of two or more states or groups."

War is "a condition arising within states (civil war) or between states (interstate war) when actors use violent means to destroy their opponents or coerce them into submission."  Kegley and Wittkopf, Global Politics, 9th Ed (2004) 405.

According to Kegley and Wittkopf, Global Politics, 9th Ed (2004) 405: 
"Between 1945 and 2001, 225 armed conflicts have been under way."
"Of the 225 armed conflicts there were 42 wars between two countries and an additional 178 internal conflicts, 32 of which had external participation by other states and 131 did not."
"Milton Leitenberg of the University of Maryland estimates that from 1945 to 2000, some 50-51 million people were killed in wars and other violent conflicts.  For the entire 20th century, he estimates 130-142 million war-related deaths, and a chilling 214-226 million if government killings in non-war situations are included."

    In the 1950s, the globe averaged 13 wars each year.
    In the 1960s, the globe averaged 19 wars each year.
    In the 1970s, the globe averaged 31 wars each year.
    In the 1980s, the globe averaged more than 40 wars each year.
    In the 1990s, the globe averaged more than 40 wars each year.

      In 1992, the world hit a peak of 51 armed conflicts going on simultaneously. In 2002, there are 38 armed conflicts under way.  

      Most of these conflicts since 1945 have been in the Global South and most have been civil wars.

Causes of War

First Level of Analysis:  Individuals' Human Nature

Human Genetics
Survival of the Fittest:  Social Darwinism and Race Theories
Nature versus Nurture
Aggression is Learned:  Socialization
Territorial Imperative
National Character
Bad Leadership
    Mistakes
    High Risk Taking
    Groupthink

Second Level of Analysis:  States Internal Characteristics

Duration of Independence.  New states prone to violence and war
Cultural Determinants
    Feminist Theories hold that men cause war. 
    Decay of Moral Constraints
Poverty
Geographical Basis of War.  Location, location, location
Militarization
Economic System
    Communist Theory of Imperialism
    Free trade as an antidote to war
    Globalization
        Uneven development
        Relative gains
Type of Government
    Democratic Peace
    Diversionary Theory of War
Nationalism

Third Level of Analysis:  Cycles of War and Peace in the Global System

Structural Realism holds that war is inevitable
Anarchic character of the International System
Self Help
Security Dilemma:  You arm for defense only to see your adversary follow suit.
Violence breeds Violence
Power Transitions
Long Cycle Theory
War Weariness Hypothesis as an explanation for peaceful periods
Hegemonic Leadership

CAUSES OF WAR [partly based on Roskin and Berry]
    This is the more traditional view.  Note how these theories are state-centered.  They do not apply the level of analysis model as a basis for explanation.  Only the last two in this list go beyond the state as the causal actor for war. 

     1.  State Survival and Territorial Security Issues

     2.  Territorial Disputes

     3.  Access to Natural Resources

     4.  Economic Reasons:  Free Trade and Access to Markets

     5.  External Aggression to Maintain Regime

     6.  Balance of Power Maintenance

     7.  Protection of Allies, Military Bases,
        Strategic Straights, Neutrality, Freedom of the Seas

     8.  Hegemonic Expansion or Challenges by an Upstart

     9.  Imperialism

     10.  Religious Wars

     11. Ideological Wars

     12. Ethnic Disputes and Minority Nationalities

     13. Human Nature?  Human Greed?

WHY WAR? Is it ever rational to go to war?

     1.  War should only be waged if benefits outweigh costs.

     2.  Proper calculation should persuade weaker side to back down before war takes place.

     3.  If war breaks out, somebody screwed up. Miscalculated.

     4.  War is a means to an end.  It should never become an end in itself.  If your ends have been achieved, war should be terminated.

TYPES OF WAR

     1.  Nuclear War

     2.  Conventional War

     3.  Hegemonic War

     4.  Systemic War

     5.  Aggressive War

     6.  Defensive War

     7.  World War

     8.  Regional War

     9.  Proxy War

     10. Civil War

     11. Just Wars?

HISTORY OF NUCLEAR AND THERMONUCLEAR WEAPONS

     US: Alamogordo, NM, July 16, l945

         Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan

         Baruch Plan to Internationalize Bomb 3/46

         U.S. Nuclear Monopoly:  1945 - 1949

         Nuclear Deterrence

         John Foster Dullas "Massive Retaliation"

     USSR:  9/1949;
     UK: 1952;
     France: 1960;
     China:  1964;
        India:  1998;
            Pakistan:  1998.

     1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty Signed by 125 States

Nuclear War

     Strategic Nuclear Weapons

          SAC Bombers, ICBMs, Nuclear Submarines

     First Strike

     John Foster Dulles "Massive Retaliation"

         Prisoner's Dilemma:  Pre-emptive First Strike

     Second Strike Capability

        MAD:  Mutual Assured Destruction

         The Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty

         Reagan's Star Wars Proposal

Nuclear Proliferation

Search for Security

Goods

     Private Goods

     Common Property Goods

     Coordination Goods

     Pure Public Good

Nuclear Deterrence    Massive Retaliation

Mutual Assured Destruction    Balance of Terror

Tactics and Strategy

First Strike Capability    Second Strike Capability

Countervalue Attack        Counterforce Attack

  bomb people                 bomb missile silos

ICBMs    MIRV   ABM    SLBMs   SDI

ICBM--Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile
MIRV--Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicle
ABM--Anti Ballistic Missile
SLBM--Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile
SDI--Strategic Defense Initiative

International Crisis

    Scenarios

    Escalation

    Protecting International Prestige

    Maintaining Credibility

    Pre-emptive Attack

 Nuclear War  

    Electromagnetic Pulse     Nuclear Winter   Termination?

The Elusive Search for National Security

   Security Dilemma

     Enmity

    Balance of Power

    Alliances

    Collective Security

    Arms Races and Technological Innovation

    Deterrence:  Military Superiority, Aggression, Conquest,

                 Empire, Mutual Assured Destruction, Balance

                 of Terror, Hegemony

    Defense:     Isolation, Garrison State, Maginot Line,

                 Star Wars, Defensive Alliances,

                 Pre-emptive Strike (Best defense is a good

                 Offense)

    Detente:     Appeasement, Agreements (Treaties),

                 Understandings, Spheres of Influence,

                 Entende

    Disarmament: Arms Control, Banning Chemical and

                 Biological Warfare, Nuclear

                 Non-Proliferation Treaty, Nuclear-Free

                 Zones (Antarctical, Outer Space),

                 Complete and Total Disarmament

"Deterrence, detente, disarmament, and defense are the methods states use to protect themselves and avoid devastation from wars." (Roskin & Berry, p.324)

Civil War

Civil War is "war between factions within the same country." Kegley and Wittkopf, Global Politics, 9th Ed (2004) 424.

Causes of Civil Wars

Internal Rebellion
    Relative Deprivation
Secessionist Revolts
Nationalism
Ethnic Warfare
Failed States
Economic Sources of Civil Wars
International Intervention in Civil Wars

Consequences of Civil Wars

Displaced People

Terrorism

Terrorism is "premeditated politically motivated violence perpetrated against noncombatant targets by subnational groups or clandestine agents, usually intended to influence an audience."  Kegley and Wittkopf, Global Politics, 9th Ed (2004) 433.

Terrorism is a kind of low-level warfare.  Asymmetric warfare.  It is warfare by the weak against the strong.  But there is also a kind of state-sponsored terrorism.  Subversion by agents of a State's security forces (CIA, KGB, M-5, etc.) can also be viewed as a kind of terrorism when it involves political assassinations.  State sponsoring terrorism must be careful to have plausible deniability or it may face a regular war.

Espionage, Covert Activities, CIA, KGB, Secret Services  

National Liberation Movements may use terrorist tactics in their struggles to gain independence.  

Irish Republican Army, Palestinian Liberation Front

The terrorist at criminal and as hero.  It depends in part on whether you support the "cause" or not. It depends in part on whether you are a victim or not.  

Terrorist bombing through hijacked airplanes of World Trade Center and Pentagon on September 11, 2001 altered American's attitudes on terrorism.  George W. Bush's War on Terrorism.

Patriot Act.  Osama bin Laden. Al Queda. Afghanistan. Saddam Hussein. Ba'ath Party.  Iraq. 

Counterterrorism. 

Terrorism is used:

to subvert a given government.      
by one state against another.       
by a separatist or national liberation movement.
by a political movement for reform or revolution.
against imperialists, political rivals, class enemy.
by a government against its own people (death squads).

Plausible Deniability  

Innocent Victims

Tools of Terror

  Armed Attack, Arson, Assault, Hostage, Bombing, Extortion,    Skyjacking, Kidnaping, Sabotage, Theft, Drug Trafficking

Five Ways Targets of Terrorists Weaken Themselves

1.  Overreacting 
2.  Being Paralyzed 
3.  Appeasing          
4.  Failing in Repression of Sympathetic Moderates           
5.  Being Intimidated                        

Psychological Profiles of Terrorists    

Groups Dynamics

Terrorism as Low-Intensity Warfare

Terrorism as Tactics